This is a hard question and I can only scratch the surface here. I assume a “machine” or factory that can use certain amount of power and what is produces is proportional to its electricity consumption. I will then either use wind power or solar power as a power source and also add a storage to help even out the power variations. If there is excess power and storage is not full, we fill it. If power supply is lacking, we drain the storage. (I assume 80% round trip efficiency.) How much power machine can use, is a variable. It probably makes no sense for this to be higher than the wind or solar capacity, but if it is reduced utilization rate for the machine can probably be increased. It should be noted that the estimates below do not (of course) use the economists definitions for capacity utilization. This is more likely to give an estimate on the additional limitations on capacity utilization on top of all those other factors that are operating in any case. Visions where variable renewables dominate are aspirational marketing material while on the ground unholy alliance seems to have quietly developed between many renewable and fossil fuel lobbyists. Cozy reliance on fossil fuels enables somewhat more variable renewables to be built before technical limitations become apparent. Supporting this modest buildup (with public money) buys fossil fuel industry social licence as well as removes long term threat of actual decarbonization. Petty about the climate, but the constituency for whom this is actually a priority is weak. This is welcome also for many politicians who are only too happy to project an appearance of activity (at relatively low cost) while their policies imply changes which have a marginal impact on the actual problem. This relates to deep decarbonization in a same way as “champagne socialism ” relates to revolution of the proletariat. Kuva 5: Saksa Joulun alla. Hauska päivä verkon ylläpitäjillä. (Vihreällä tuuli+aurinko+vesivoima, punaisella siihen on vielä lisätty tuonti, varastot ja bio- ja jätevoima. Ei riitä…) Kirjan otsikko puhuu “avaimesta” talouskasvuun, hyvinvointiin ja ilmastonmuutokseen. Vaikka kirjassa keskusteltiin monista tekijöistä joilla riskejä voidaan pienentää ja positiivisen kehityskulun todennäköisyyttä kasvattaa, en usko lopulta löytäneeni “avainta” vaan harmaan eri sävyjä. Näin on hyvä ja kirjoittajien kieltäytyminen kaiken kattavien ennustusten ja pelastavien visioiden tehtailusta kertoo heidän viisaudestaan. Olemme keskellä suota ja korskea hyppiminen suuntaan tai toiseen heikentää suurella todennäköisyydellä asemaamme. On parempi astella varovasti ja toivoa, että joskus päädymme tukevammalle maalle…jos sellaista edes on olemassa. Figure 7: Same as figure 5, but with solar power. Lappeenrannassa rakennelleen malleja joissa yhden jos toisen alueen sähköntarve katettaisiin täysin uusiutuvilla. In the earlier post I summarized my estimates on the limits to capacity utilization if production is done either with wind or solar power. Here I will (over)think implication a bit further. On their own wind and solar power implied strong restrictions on achievable utilization rates. Overbuilding generation capacity (and associated distribution system) could increase utilization rates, but at the expense of ever increasing amount of wasted power and underutilized power lines. Storage could also help suomi bonus no deposit, but smoothing out the production profile would require large amount of underutilized storage capacity. There doesn’t seem to be away around this. Low capacity factor of variable power source has cascading effects elsewhere. If not fixed capacity utilization of end users would be strongly constrained and most likely too low to enable profitable business. On the other hand attempts to fix the problem would imply underutilized generators, power lines, and/or storage. Technical developments will not change this since the problem is not due to specific technology or costs. Are there ways around these problems? Of course… If you are planning to invest in a new plant producing for example solar panels and you find production to be unprofitable with utilizations rates implied by solar power, your first choice is simply not to invest. If economic preconditions do not exist, production never materializes even if we might find such production desirable or even critically important. Production would either not happen or move to a place where higher utilization rates are possible. Various shades of gray might also exists as they do today especially in the developing world. If production process is such that you could for example store some parts for later use, it might be possible to outsource only those phases which require reliable power elsewhere. Of course, this still opens up possibilities for those not saddled with the same constraints. Figure 2: Wind power source limited capacity utilization as a function of “machine capacity” (i.e. what fraction of power source capacity it can use) and storage (days at average wind production). Wind power data from UK 2013. So let me quickly summarize what I find… So can we learn something from this? I think we can since economic and social arguments for why coal won have not disappeared. If you listen to todays renewables promotion, you will be constantly bombarded with statements about how huge the potential energy resource is and how cheap it is…or is going to be any day now. Might it be a cause for concern that these two reasons were also promoted by water proponents in the 19th century Britain just when coal was taking over? Might there be a risk, we are discussing beside the point? If excessive reliance on variable renewables end up limiting capacity utilization, is there not a similar risk that water power faced in the 19th century? Who bears the cost of lower utilization? Labour? Lower salaries and/or more irregular working hours anyone? Vacations in the winter since solar power produces mainly in the summer? If push comes to shove and such questions have to be asked, I am quite sure any techno-fetishes we might have, will evaporate. Muutama huomio myös tuulivoiman tuotantoprofiileista on paikallaan. Voimme helposti laskea todennäköisyysjakaumat sille, että tuulivoiman tuotanto on joku tietty osuus kapasiteetista. Seuraava kuva näyttää tuloksen Suomesta sekä mallin mukaan, että todelliseen tuotantotietoon perustuen ( vuosi 2016 tähän asti). Esitin alla olevan kysymyksen äskettäin Espoon Vihreille. Kysymys on relevantti myös muissa pääkaupunkiseudun kunnissa. Summa summarum. Yhtä sun toista korjattavaa mallissa löytyy ja ehkä kannattaa vielä odottaa hetki ennen kuin aloitamme vain rakentamaan. Maybe there are processes that do not mind this, but there are also plenty of industrial processes where steady power supply is needed and where abrupt power cuts will undermine the economics of the plant. (It would be interesting to have real world examples of production economics as one changes between power sources. Do you know any? I suspect that current way of delivering power to industries in developed economies is close to optimal for their needs.) There were many overlapping reasons. For example, factories followed labour to the cities. In the early 19th century it was already clear from the demographics that labour was to be found in the cities. Water power was dispersed and getting meek labour to run the machines in the middle of nowhere was harder. In fact, owners of water powered factories were relatively more dependent on the apprenticeship system providing them with, what can apparently with some justification be called, slave (child) labour. Water power was also more variable than steam, which made it even more important to have well behaved labour that would be willing to work long and irregular hours. Figures 2 and 3 show my rough estimates for the “capacity utilization” as a function of machine capacity and amount of storage (hours of average power production). If machine capacity is equal to the capacity of the power source, capacity utlization is limited by the capacity factor of the power source. As machine capacity is reduced and/or storage is added capacity utilization can increase. However it is very hard to get to a situation where power source would not be a factor substantially limiting the overall capacity utilization. Haluan erityisesti nostaa esille kirjan keskustelun talouskasvusta ja degrowthista. Tätä käsiteltiin teemaan sopivalla hienovaraisuudella ja nyanssilla ilman olkiukkojen rakentelua. Aivan liian usein tätä keskustelua dominoivat ääripäiden fundamentalistit, jotka rakentavat tarpeetonta vastakkainasettelua kenties osin retorisena keinona korostaa oman näkemyksensä erinomaisuutta oman heimon keskuudessa. Toisaalla degrowth-liike on vandalismia, joka on tuhoamassa kaiken arvokkaan ja toisaalta “perinteiset” ekonomistit ovat vandaaleja, jotka ovat tuhomassa kaiken arvokkaan. Rakentavaa. Suokko ja Partanen eivät tähän sorru vaan käsittelevät mielestäni asiallisesti koko keskustelun kirjon ja jakavat kunniaa sinne minne sitä kuuluu jakaa ja kritiikkiä sinne mihin se kuuluu. Tämä keskustelu on todella laadukasta enkä ole vastaavaa lukenut edes englannin kielellä kuin paloittain siellä täällä eri lähteissä. In a developed economy capacity utlization is not really limited by the power supply. We get power from the plug whenever we need it. Capacity utilization is limited more by things like rising labour costs if one aims for maximum production or perhaps uncertainty on whether or not a buyer can be found for the product. However, our electricity production follows the demand and not all power sources can do that. Some view it desirable that consumers should in fact adjust their consumption according to weather. This raises the question: “How will this limit the capacity utlizations?” This will probably be a fairly long post mainly summarizing findings from my simple toy model….so proceed at your own peril. For a while I have been interested in how the properties of the power source affect the end user. For the consumer different power sources deliver very different value, but the public discussion is typically centered (more or less honestly) on costs. I think one issue of great relevance is the capacity utilization and the aim of this post is to record my studies on the matter. In particular I wish to explore the variable power sources such as wind and solar in the context of capacity utilization. My thoughts are in the end closely related to “capacity factor rule” discussed by John Morgan. but I approach the issue from somewhat different angle. Household size There are statutory maximum limits on households' housing costs. Any housing costs exceeding these limits are not recognised as housing costs. If the acceptable housing costs of a household exceed the maximum limit for housing costs, they are recognised only up to the maximum limit. The maximum housing costs are adjusted yearly to changes in the Statistics Finland rent index. Municipality The calculator works based on the Nigeria tax system and it relieves you of the stress of the complex calculations involved. 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